0x78df073cd22d6ca3d97bf3877c82f209789e42c2
0x78df073cd22d6ca3d97bf3877c82f209789e42c2
- Realised P&L
- $-3.47
- Volume
- $233.59
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $5.14
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)14.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration81.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.770 | $4.20 | −$0.05 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.194 | 0.182 | $0.94 | −$0.06 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.245 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.08at 0.022Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$-0.11at 0.194Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$-0.11at 0.135Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$-0.31at 0.324Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$-0.35at 0.125Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 12:22 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.7799999927 | $4.25 |
| 09-11 21:28 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.193999969 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 21:27 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.19 | $1.04 |
| 09-11 21:00 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.1859999989 | $1.02 |
| 09-11 20:57 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.087 | $0.72 |
| 09-04 13:50 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.1199998992 | $1.00 |
| 09-04 13:44 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.186 | $1.04 |
| 08-28 12:09 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.1779998704 | $1.00 |
| 08-28 12:07 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.28 | $1.53 |
| 08-21 23:35 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.3099999289 | $1.70 |
| 08-21 23:33 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.126 | $0.98 |
| 08-13 15:22 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.128999904 | $1.00 |
| 08-13 15:19 | Will Leonardo Bonucci attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? | SELL | 0.028 | $0.30 |
| 08-13 15:19 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.092 | $1.63 |
| 08-06 15:01 | Will Leonardo Bonucci attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? | BUY | 0.0919999183 | $1.00 |