0x78cde651f55b25634d4a69db4a342d2959a2c82c
- Realised P&L
- $-338.78
- Volume
- $15.8k
- Markets traded
- 90
- Open portfolio
- $24.71
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded90
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)24.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.013 | $12.50 | −$1.50 |
| Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.119 | 0.080 | $8.34 | −$4.06 |
| Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.038 | $3.87 | −$6.13 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$70.16at 0.190Spain vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score in First Half
- +$52.44at 0.160Mexico vs. England: Both Teams to Score in First Half
- +$44.26at 0.195Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$30.41at 0.450England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
- +$26.99at 0.270Will England win on 2026-07-18?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 15:53 | Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner | BUY | 0.12 | $1.23 |
| 08-01 15:51 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.014 | $14.00 |
| 08-01 15:50 | Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | SELL | 0.11 | $16.71 |
| 07-29 19:43 | Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | BUY | 0.1199999947 | $18.23 |
| 07-27 20:32 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.263 | $19.99 |
| 07-27 13:18 | Targu Mures: Caijsa Hennemann vs Mia Pohankova | BUY | 0.4099999806 | $9.73 |
| 07-25 11:00 | Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1007527088 | $10.51 |
| 07-21 14:53 | Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1189422206 | $24.81 |
| 07-19 22:16 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0630000006 | $7.00 |
| 07-19 08:30 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0739999631 | $2.00 |
| 07-19 08:28 | Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in First Half | BUY | 0.1799999968 | $36.97 |
| 07-19 08:12 | Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 | SELL | 0.043 | $5.49 |
| 07-19 04:15 | Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.2521236426 | $35.52 |
| 07-19 04:15 | Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.253 | $35.64 |
| 07-19 04:13 | Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.2903346741 | $81.81 |