cayman718
0x78b6c57265fc3cdf45905dfc0857b5799bc230c7
- Realised P&L
- $-528.45
- Volume
- $2.1k
- Markets traded
- 57
- Open portfolio
- $1.17
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-24.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded57
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample43 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$22.76at 0.290Will Zelensky meet with Trump in September?
- +$9.17at 0.350Will Ferencvaros beat Nice?
- +$8.99at 0.690Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?
- +$8.91at 0.440Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-05-31?
- +$8.89at 0.360Will Ukraine win on 2025-11-16?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 17:34 | Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.4899999484 | $1.33 |
| 07-28 15:20 | KAA Gent vs. FK LNZ Cherkasy: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.23 | $1.15 |
| 05-28 12:05 | Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.013 | $0.07 |
| 05-23 18:31 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? | BUY | 0.3899999503 | $4.00 |
| 04-30 10:13 | Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-04-30? | BUY | 0.27 | $2.50 |
| 04-30 10:11 | Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-04-30? | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 01-19 10:15 | Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.56 | $50.40 |
| 01-19 10:12 | Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.56 | $36.40 |
| 01-18 23:11 | Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | BUY | 0.042 | $1.05 |
| 01-18 23:08 | US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $1.08 |
| 01-13 18:14 | US strike on Mexico by January 31? | BUY | 0.0879999226 | $1.00 |
| 01-13 18:11 | US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.2199998548 | $1.00 |
| 01-13 10:37 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-21? | BUY | 0.49 | $2.45 |
| 01-13 10:37 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-20? | BUY | 0.55 | $2.75 |
| 01-07 15:15 | Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-01-10? | BUY | 0.52 | $4.16 |