wfernandez
0x78aac3bf27489cae04c8af2d376a710af99ced06
- Realised P&L
- $-95.53
- Volume
- $21.5k
- Markets traded
- 84
- Open portfolio
- $58.93
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded84
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.967 | $22.78 | +$1.10 |
| Will Veneziano win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.560 | $18.12 | −$1.94 |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on October 12, 2026? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.955 | $18.03 | +$0.46 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.39at 0.730Ethereum above $3,500 on January 10?
- +$2.53at 0.999Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31?
- +$0.96at 0.580Will Real Madrid win La Liga?
- +$0.68at 0.380Bitcoin above $97,000 on December 27?
- +$0.34at 0.989Will Grok-4 be the top AI before August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 13:30 | Will BNB dip to $700 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.33 |
| 01-30 16:51 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.41 |
| 01-30 16:49 | Will Chainlink hit $15 in January? | BUY | 0.998 | $12.18 |
| 01-30 13:03 | Will Lighter reach $3.50 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $36.69 |
| 01-30 12:36 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January? | BUY | 0.998 | $17.55 |
| 12-30 11:30 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.68 |
| 12-29 23:25 | Will Trump pardon Young Thug in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.23 |
| 12-29 22:58 | Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $30.69 |
| 12-29 19:14 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.82 |
| 10-30 22:01 | Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $23.91 |
| 10-30 21:12 | Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $26.19 |
| 10-30 18:43 | Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.9889999996 | $22.40 |
| 09-29 18:28 | Will Google have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.99 | $11.30 |
| 09-29 04:25 | Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? | BUY | 0.9979999752 | $17.11 |
| 09-29 02:24 | Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.56 |