0x786b3b4e6991ac94b04023778b6dacfe17a49519
0x786b3b4e6991ac94b04023778b6dacfe17a49519
- Realised P&L
- $-472.52
- Volume
- $13.8k
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $576.03
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.754 | 0.910 | $362.06 | +$62.06 |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.755 | $111.03 | +$11.03 |
| Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.175 | $102.94 | +$2.94 |
| Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? · Yes | 0.255 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$582.74at 0.468Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?
- +$351.24at 0.228Will Micron (MU) close at $860-$880 on the final day of trading of the week of Aug 3 – Aug 7?
- +$109.80at 0.278Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
- +$78.22at 0.796Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$66.01at 0.755Will Micron (MU) close above $800 end of August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 10:07 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.6799999981 | $100.00 |
| 10-23 17:41 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? | BUY | 0.8895552171 | $100.00 |
| 10-19 13:30 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999988 | $100.00 |
| 10-10 13:54 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999953 | $100.00 |
| 09-29 13:53 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.783730158 | $100.00 |
| 09-26 13:17 | Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? | BUY | 0.1699999997 | $100.00 |
| 09-24 13:43 | Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | BUY | 0.2313241864 | $100.00 |
| 09-24 03:31 | Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | BUY | 0.4 | $100.00 |
| 09-24 03:30 | Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | BUY | 0.284158274 | $100.00 |
| 09-24 03:30 | Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | BUY | 0.4 | $100.00 |
| 09-16 10:14 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $100.00 |
| 09-16 10:14 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September? | BUY | 0.8790020633 | $99.54 |
| 09-09 18:02 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,550 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.869164732 | $100.00 |
| 09-09 17:59 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.8399999933 | $100.00 |
| 09-01 11:48 | Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? | SELL | 0.949 | $249.73 |