crying-duck
0x786a0607d5db2dbc37d0571fe6b3ac7b1a6094a7
- Realised P&L
- $1.7k
- Volume
- $2.32M
- Markets traded
- 50
- Open portfolio
- $134.20
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded50
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample47 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)63.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.083 | 0.075 | $52.21 | −$5.58 |
| Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.022 | 0.013 | $46.78 | −$35.37 |
| Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.011 | $33.82 | −$36.30 |
| Will Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.006 | $0.60 | −$0.81 |
| Will World Central Kitchen win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.011 | $0.47 | −$0.16 |
| Will Hussam Abu Safiya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.002 | $0.20 | −$1.21 |
| Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.002 | $0.13 | −$1.09 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$272.05at 0.040Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- +$214.55at 0.019Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?
- +$157.09at 0.014Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- +$141.59at 0.025Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- +$129.14at 0.061Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-18 05:05 | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $1.09 |
| 05-12 05:12 | Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.045 | $0.55 |
| 05-07 06:10 | Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.009 | $0.30 |
| 05-07 06:08 | Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.024 | $7.13 |
| 04-26 16:31 | Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.029 | $1.16 |
| 04-21 05:16 | Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.071 | $0.83 |
| 04-17 05:13 | Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.071 | $0.14 |
| 04-13 06:06 | Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.051 | $0.24 |
| 04-12 08:40 | Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.031 | $0.73 |
| 04-12 07:58 | Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.047 | $0.26 |
| 04-11 07:26 | Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.042 | $0.78 |
| 04-07 06:00 | Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.041 | $0.02 |
| 04-07 05:57 | Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.048 | $4.40 |
| 04-06 06:17 | Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.041 | $0.27 |
| 04-05 12:44 | Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.022 | $2.64 |