cfgrqw
0x78694cd5b74f3647cd64411729a42f72d3f28f4c
- Realised P&L
- $1.40
- Volume
- $5.5k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $6.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Washington Wizards make the 2027 NBA Playoffs? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.270 | $6.75 | −$0.25 |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Dell say "Windows 10" during earnings call? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.07at 0.487Will United States win on 2026-06-12?
- +$0.96at 0.510Ethereum Up or Down on April 10?
- +$0.51at 0.510Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
- +$0.49at 0.670Will Russia capture Yablunivka before August?
- +$0.42at 0.706Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 18:46 | Will the Washington Wizards make the 2027 NBA Playoffs? | BUY | 0.28 | $7.00 |
| 06-12 08:58 | Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | BUY | 0.4799998272 | $1.00 |
| 06-11 13:53 | Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 06-11 13:52 | Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 02-27 13:07 | Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 02-27 12:58 | Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? | BUY | 0.9 | $1.00 |
| 12-29 13:27 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2? | BUY | 0.92 | $1.00 |
| 10-29 02:32 | Will Dell say "Windows 10" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.9299999907 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 13:40 | Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 10+ times during events with Turkish president on September 25? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 08-30 21:26 | Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 08-30 21:23 | Will Trump Media buy more Bitcoin in 2025? | SELL | 0.78 | $0.91 |
| 07-26 16:05 | Will Trump Media buy more Bitcoin in 2025? | BUY | 0.849999915 | $1.00 |
| 06-28 05:48 | Will Russia capture Yablunivka before August? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 05-25 13:42 | Will "Oh, Mary!" win the Tony for Best Play 2025? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 04-09 05:57 | Ethereum Up or Down on April 10? | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $1.00 |