kevinstewart
0x7856a01812a4ed832946054ff014780651b4ccd0
- Realised P&L
- $-77.79
- Volume
- $11.3k
- Markets traded
- 78
- Open portfolio
- $40.03
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded78
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration67.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on September 18? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.325 | $39.98 | −$23.99 |
| Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? · No | 0.870 | 0.006 | $0.05 | −$6.94 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.12at 0.570Ethereum above $3,400 on December 27?
- +$2.52at 0.999U.S. recession before May 2025?
- +$0.31at 0.654Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?
- +$0.21at 0.995Will Chainlink hit $21 in January?
- +$0.17at 0.987Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 13:38 | Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.998 | $11.91 |
| 01-30 15:43 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.63 |
| 01-30 14:36 | Will Chainlink hit $21 in January? | BUY | 0.995 | $42.76 |
| 01-30 13:09 | Will Opendoor reach $10.25 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $35.19 |
| 12-30 18:01 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.33 |
| 12-30 17:27 | Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $6.27 |
| 12-30 09:44 | Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.03 |
| 12-29 21:23 | Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $17.96 |
| 12-29 19:54 | Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.14 |
| 12-29 19:43 | Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $48.25 |
| 10-31 15:07 | Will xAI have the top AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.74 |
| 10-30 17:49 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $25.44 |
| 09-29 13:31 | Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.9869999991 | $12.99 |
| 09-29 00:17 | Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? | BUY | 0.995 | $14.01 |
| 09-28 21:28 | Will Solana reach $270 in September? | BUY | 0.9979999512 | $19.72 |