0x78540db74c4f544330db708ccbc13a1fcb6e279d
0x78540db74c4f544330db708ccbc13a1fcb6e279d
- Realised P&L
- $-0.26
- Volume
- $152.41
- Markets traded
- 70
- Open portfolio
- $5.28
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded70
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.845 | $1.22 | +$0.22 |
| Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $17.4B? · No | 0.720 | 0.875 | $1.22 | +$0.22 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 Week of October 12 2026? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.340 | $1.10 | +$0.10 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 8? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.730 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · No | 0.530 | 0.385 | $0.73 | −$0.27 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.51at 0.227Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of August 24 2026?
- +$2.67at 0.278Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?
- +$2.20at 0.319Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of September 21 2026?
- +$1.91at 0.349S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 10?
- +$1.83at 0.359Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $164 Week of September 21 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 23:02 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 14:28 | Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 15? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 03:49 | Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $17.4B? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 19:33 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 07:46 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 23:38 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $61 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 00:30 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,140 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 05:05 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 8? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 14:49 | Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 05:44 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 10:23 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 1? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 13:15 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 28? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 05:10 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 21:09 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 01:31 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |