nergdnal
0x7841ba180d9904aee5a6de580ebe591f94377db6
- Realised P&L
- $-251.00
- Volume
- $9.3k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $244.28
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration39.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · No | 0.094 | 0.055 | $116.63 | −$83.37 |
| Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.053 | 0.048 | $110.26 | −$12.89 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.830 | 0.962 | $9.62 | +$1.31 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No | 0.340 | 0.167 | $5.00 | −$5.21 |
| Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.022 | 0.004 | $2.23 | −$8.76 |
| Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.055 | $0.55 | −$3.15 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$44.24at 0.680Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
- +$43.58at 0.915Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
- +$25.73at 0.880Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?
- +$-52.69at 0.176Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 15, 2026?
- +$-54.28at 0.049Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 17:38 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.0943149762 | $200.00 |
| 09-16 17:36 | Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats? | SELL | 0.999 | $216.67 |
| 09-11 22:07 | Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats? | BUY | 0.8759999966 | $190.00 |
| 09-11 22:05 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.991 | $187.95 |
| 08-29 23:17 | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $60.00 |
| 08-29 23:03 | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $51.00 |
| 08-29 23:03 | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $84.25 |
| 08-29 23:01 | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" in 2026? | BUY | 0.048 | $38.88 |
| 08-29 22:57 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.99 | $238.98 |
| 08-29 22:46 | Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.057 | $57.00 |
| 08-29 22:27 | Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0500698056 | $66.15 |
| 08-29 22:23 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.99 | $149.93 |
| 06-18 22:50 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY | 0.6799999983 | $94.00 |
| 05-18 12:37 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.91 | $5.00 |
| 05-05 09:44 | Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.023 | $4.60 |