23derfrf
0x783069e293a51f41c5741b8ab3ac102836b825c5
- Realised P&L
- $-146.36
- Volume
- $5.1k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $3.57
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024? · Yes | 0.900 | 0.997 | $1.22 | +$0.12 |
| Will the Republican Party win the TX-09 House seat? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.895 | $1.19 | +$0.19 |
| Will Magomed Ankalaev fight Paulo Costa next? · No | 0.640 | 0.740 | $1.16 | +$0.16 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.99at 0.626Will there be less than 16 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?
- +$1.92at 0.510Bitcoin Up or Down – May 28 (10 PM ET Candle)
- +$1.03at 0.660Ripple above $2.39 on December 13?
- +$0.21at 0.890Will General Motors (GM) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$0.20at 0.910Will a hurricane form by September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-28 13:39 | Will Magomed Ankalaev fight Paulo Costa next? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 03-24 09:27 | Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.987 | $69.44 |
| 03-23 13:25 | Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.9949999969 | $70.00 |
| 03-08 07:40 | Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? | SELL | 0.993 | $130.64 |
| 03-08 07:40 | Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.997 | $110.11 |
| 03-08 07:40 | Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.991 | $99.89 |
| 03-07 12:18 | Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY | 0.994 | $130.00 |
| 03-07 12:18 | Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? | SELL | 0.992 | $128.96 |
| 03-07 12:17 | Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY | 0.994 | $130.00 |
| 03-07 12:16 | Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.998 | $110.00 |
| 03-07 12:16 | Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.997 | $109.67 |
| 03-07 12:16 | Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.998 | $110.00 |
| 03-07 12:14 | Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.992 | $100.00 |
| 01-29 05:39 | Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by February 28? | BUY | 0.97 | $1.00 |
| 12-22 06:53 | Will the Republican Party win the TX-09 House seat? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |