canthavenames
0x7824b8966d1ee806a235a2931ff0ac479bf2e5cd
- Realised P&L
- $44.60
- Volume
- $4.6k
- Markets traded
- 46
- Open portfolio
- $38.72
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded46
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample45 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Papertrade FDV above $250M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.470 | $38.72 | +$5.77 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$27.47at 0.580GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?
- +$19.71at 0.852Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026?
- +$17.26at 0.835Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
- +$10.42at 0.867No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?
- +$9.15at 0.690Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-22 23:24 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? | BUY | 0.83 | $91.07 |
| 06-17 02:17 | No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.932 | $27.02 |
| 06-10 12:34 | Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? | SELL | 0.999 | $39.96 |
| 06-10 12:33 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May? | SELL | 0.99 | $49.50 |
| 06-03 02:01 | Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? | SELL | 0.7898777767 | $82.14 |
| 05-29 03:44 | Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.871 | $65.33 |
| 05-28 19:59 | GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.57 | $62.57 |
| 05-28 17:24 | Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? | SELL | 0.77925375 | $62.34 |
| 05-25 06:04 | Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision? | SELL | 0.9593109836 | $58.52 |
| 04-13 05:55 | Will Tisza win at least 100 seats? | SELL | 0.993 | $19.86 |
| 04-13 05:55 | Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 100 seats? | SELL | 0.992401 | $29.77 |
| 03-27 14:20 | Will Tisza win at least 100 seats? | BUY | 0.7 | $14.00 |
| 03-25 19:54 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.01 |
| 03-25 19:53 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? | SELL | 0.04 | $0.22 |
| 03-24 17:29 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.02 |