0x781ae9160412ee70f2e4e3e59b51d7752f393809
0x781ae9160412ee70f2e4e3e59b51d7752f393809
- Realised P&L
- $15.89
- Volume
- $381.74
- Markets traded
- 86
- Open portfolio
- $8.58
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded86
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.935 | $2.53 | +$0.53 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No | 0.780 | 0.993 | $2.01 | +$0.43 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.185 | $1.61 | −$0.39 |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on September 28, 2026? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.285 | $0.97 | −$1.03 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.070 | $0.64 | −$1.36 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.065 | $0.48 | −$1.52 |
| Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.1M and 7.2M in August? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.036 | $0.35 | −$1.65 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.63at 0.237Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference?
- +$6.26at 0.249Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?
- +$4.61at 0.308Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
- +$3.65at 0.361Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$3.00at 0.400US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 18:41 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $2.00 |
| 09-23 18:39 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999186 | $2.00 |
| 09-23 10:39 | Will any other model be the best AI model on September 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899999145 | $2.00 |
| 09-23 02:38 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999782 | $2.00 |
| 09-22 18:38 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $2.00 |
| 09-22 10:36 | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.1M and 7.2M in August? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $2.00 |
| 09-22 02:36 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $2.00 |
| 09-21 18:28 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $2.00 |
| 09-21 10:17 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $990 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.5599999328 | $2.00 |
| 09-21 01:40 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $183 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.6099999116 | $2.00 |
| 09-21 01:40 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,080 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.5899999145 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 16:24 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.7799998674 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 07:46 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 21:08 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.439999956 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 08:41 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.73 |