0x7806f8B8509Af97CfC5B7B19D1Abc8341DB6AE3f-1768641613991
0x7806f8b8509af97cfc5b7b19d1abc8341db6ae3f
- Realised P&L
- $5.6k
- Volume
- $116.9k
- Markets traded
- 59
- Open portfolio
- $720.29
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded59
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.103 | 0.065 | $362.22 | −$214.52 |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.095 | 0.186 | $193.60 | +$94.29 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.313 | 0.065 | $85.40 | −$326.34 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.135 | 0.038 | $77.00 | −$193.00 |
| Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.021 | $2.07 | −$3.71 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.5kat 0.356Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$1.7kat 0.474US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
- +$1.6kat 0.494Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
- +$597.90at 0.633US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$217.71at 0.410Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-13 23:41 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.51 | $221.85 |
| 06-13 13:36 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 | SELL | 0.84 | $419.98 |
| 05-24 12:30 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.62 | $111.60 |
| 05-24 10:35 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $119.00 |
| 05-24 03:07 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.11 | $110.00 |
| 05-24 01:41 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.42 | $33.39 |
| 05-23 14:58 | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? | SELL | 0.3 | $23.93 |
| 05-22 15:53 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $93.00 |
| 05-22 13:54 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? | SELL | 0.79 | $103.08 |
| 05-22 13:05 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? | SELL | 0.79 | $206.15 |
| 05-12 01:06 | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | SELL | 0.009 | $4.50 |
| 05-10 13:52 | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | SELL | 0.08 | $44.00 |
| 04-19 12:02 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? | SELL | 0.27 | $31.05 |
| 04-19 11:46 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? | SELL | 0.28 | $24.70 |
| 03-31 01:23 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.34 | $340.00 |