0x780348df057083860739666e8b7614D91e9316aD-1777121247393
0x780348df057083860739666e8b7614d91e9316ad
- Realised P&L
- $185.08
- Volume
- $2.4k
- Markets traded
- 40
- Open portfolio
- $8.61
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar7.7%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded40
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? · No | 0.510 | 0.305 | $8.61 | −$5.79 |
| Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in July 2026? · No | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.96 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? · Yes | 0.878 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17? · No | 0.730 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.94 |
| Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in July 2026? · Yes | 0.338 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.62 |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14? · No | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.10 |
| Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? · No | 0.798 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.33 |
| North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.16 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$41.79at 0.565Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?
- +$39.67at 0.918Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026?
- +$32.47at 0.914Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
- +$15.70at 0.854Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?
- +$15.14at 0.499Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-30 05:01 | Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.51 | $14.40 |
| 08-30 09:11 | Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.9103201276 | $345.36 |
| 08-23 13:45 | Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23? | BUY | 0.5529085613 | $53.15 |
| 08-23 13:45 | Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23? | BUY | 0.85 | $33.96 |
| 08-20 18:06 | Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23? | BUY | 0.8009366637 | $53.87 |
| 08-20 09:05 | Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $223.72 |
| 08-20 09:04 | Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $55.80 |
| 08-20 09:04 | Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $69.75 |
| 08-20 09:04 | Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $4.60 |
| 08-20 09:04 | Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $6.12 |
| 08-20 09:04 | Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $47.30 |
| 08-15 00:57 | Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16? | BUY | 0.98 | $19.60 |
| 08-15 00:57 | Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16? | BUY | 0.97 | $14.54 |
| 08-13 01:57 | Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16? | SELL | 0.9977568526 | $84.45 |
| 08-11 22:03 | Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026? | BUY | 0.58 | $1.83 |