robertmcintosh
0x77d743d833642b83dac67a5b283e9285ed95804f
- Realised P&L
- $-0.59
- Volume
- $12.1k
- Markets traded
- 83
- Open portfolio
- $22.83
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded83
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rishi Sharma win the 2026 Saanich mayoral election? · No | 0.740 | 0.915 | $10.98 | +$2.10 |
| Eagles vs. Bears · Eagles | 0.670 | 0.635 | $8.79 | −$0.48 |
| Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho be between 600,000 and 640,000? · No | 0.630 | 0.480 | $3.06 | −$0.96 |
| Illinois State vs. Northern Iowa · Illinois State | 0.890 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.43 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.34at 0.810Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?
- +$4.01at 0.690TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?
- +$2.88at 0.780Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 10?
- +$0.71at 0.256Liverpool wins the Premier League?
- +$0.70at 0.968Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 14:06 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in January? | BUY | 0.9989999436 | $4.73 |
| 01-31 13:37 | Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.9939999999 | $14.90 |
| 01-30 16:31 | Will Ethena hit $0.37 in January? | BUY | 0.998 | $7.95 |
| 01-30 15:19 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in January? | BUY | 0.995 | $14.14 |
| 01-30 14:24 | Will Chainlink hit $21 in January? | BUY | 0.995 | $44.30 |
| 12-30 13:41 | Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? | BUY | 0.9979999602 | $19.27 |
| 12-30 01:34 | Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $12.26 |
| 12-30 01:15 | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? | BUY | 0.9979999539 | $18.50 |
| 12-29 23:35 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | BUY | 0.9969999665 | $14.90 |
| 12-29 19:23 | Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $22.76 |
| 10-30 23:59 | Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $25.32 |
| 10-30 21:50 | Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be less than 1.0%? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.35 |
| 10-30 18:50 | Will xAI have the top AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.9889999998 | $20.83 |
| 09-29 10:01 | Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.9889999997 | $17.76 |
| 09-29 01:44 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | BUY | 0.9989999884 | $16.79 |