0x77958accec3edfc6ea0194e8fb954647456b9a17
- Realised P&L
- $-29.2k
- Volume
- $1.97M
- Markets traded
- 118
- Open portfolio
- $3.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded118
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.174 | 0.085 | $1.8k | −$1.8k |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.023 | $641.39 | −$358.59 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.053 | 0.033 | $614.91 | −$385.09 |
| Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.258 | 0.055 | $415.66 | −$1.5k |
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.012 | 0.009 | $78.38 | −$20.63 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.8kat 0.025Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Egypt?
- +$14.2kat 0.585France vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5
- +$9.1kat 0.247Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Egypt?
- +$9.0kat 0.100Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 Spain?
- +$8.9kat 0.514Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-20 22:18 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.984 | $1.0k |
| 07-19 20:32 | Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Argentina? | BUY | 0.2449747833 | $500.00 |
| 07-19 20:11 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.601 | $5.0k |
| 07-19 18:44 | Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Argentina? | BUY | 0.12 | $3.0k |
| 07-19 18:43 | Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Argentina? | SELL | 0.15 | $1.9k |
| 07-19 18:20 | Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.0k |
| 07-19 18:20 | Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Argentina? | BUY | 0.1199999998 | $500.00 |
| 07-19 17:55 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.592 | $5.0k |
| 07-19 17:51 | Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Argentina? | BUY | 0.1199999998 | $500.00 |
| 07-19 17:31 | Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw? | SELL | 0.3175 | $5.0k |
| 07-19 17:25 | Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.4149999998 | $1000.00 |
| 07-19 17:23 | Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.0k |
| 07-19 17:15 | Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw? | BUY | 0.3175 | $5.0k |
| 07-19 17:14 | Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.695 | $5.0k |
| 07-19 17:13 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5925 | $5.0k |