bolgor
0x778fe04b92725006091fe1a654d975eb32078a1d
- Realised P&L
- $-675.56
- Volume
- $10.7k
- Markets traded
- 281
- Open portfolio
- $53.61
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded281
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.067 | 0.009 | $53.61 | −$346.39 |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.00 |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? · Yes | 0.053 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.00 |
| Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? · Yes | 0.019 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$49.33at 0.280Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?
- +$42.24at 0.658Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET
- +$14.31at 0.609Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
- +$11.05at 0.580Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET
- +$10.49at 0.280US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-15 00:20 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BUY | 0.3 | $114.00 |
| 03-08 21:51 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BUY | 0.4099999983 | $71.00 |
| 03-08 21:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET | BUY | 0.4653004607 | $19.38 |
| 03-08 21:37 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET | BUY | 0.7976071785 | $49.35 |
| 03-08 21:37 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET | BUY | 0.2593048902 | $9.82 |
| 03-08 21:32 | Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0671531304 | $400.00 |
| 02-19 09:20 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET | BUY | 0.4927241073 | $8.72 |
| 02-19 09:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET | BUY | 0.5399999903 | $9.69 |
| 02-19 09:14 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET | BUY | 0.6899999931 | $12.70 |
| 02-19 09:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET | BUY | 0.32 | $9.76 |
| 02-19 09:08 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET | SELL | 0.05 | $0.80 |
| 02-19 09:06 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET | BUY | 0.3099999622 | $4.89 |
| 02-19 09:02 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET | BUY | 0.5212635974 | $4.84 |
| 02-19 09:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET | BUY | 0.4653465218 | $4.85 |
| 02-18 21:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET | BUY | 0.85 | $4.22 |