0x77861330b7ba9e77430950345e0805e852792765
- Realised P&L
- $-454.37
- Volume
- $45.9k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $114.19
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration94.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration87.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? · Yes | 0.192 | 0.034 | $100.27 | −$475.71 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.021 | $13.91 | −$96.09 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$972.24at 0.197Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$24.00at 0.573Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
- +$22.31at 0.160Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
- +$6.98at 0.577Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
- +$2.20at 0.092Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-17 17:55 | Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | BUY | 0.64 | $13.03 |
| 06-17 17:51 | Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | SELL | 0.66 | $13.44 |
| 06-17 13:02 | Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | BUY | 0.7699999912 | $15.68 |
| 06-17 13:02 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.005 | $15.95 |
| 04-15 17:12 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.08 | $20.37 |
| 04-15 17:10 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.08 | $9.95 |
| 04-15 10:37 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.0899999922 | $9.95 |
| 04-14 19:27 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.0899999922 | $9.95 |
| 04-14 17:17 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.0899999922 | $9.95 |
| 04-14 03:57 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.1 | $5.00 |
| 04-13 22:09 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.1 | $9.95 |
| 04-13 19:03 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.1099999815 | $5.00 |
| 04-12 21:57 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.1099999907 | $9.95 |
| 04-12 16:48 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.113931288 | $9.95 |
| 04-12 15:41 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.1199999966 | $27.86 |