liuleixian1
0x77845d78421fc4cb9aa6d420f3e0b7e82e3cadec
- Realised P&L
- $-356.94
- Volume
- $54.8k
- Markets traded
- 194
- Open portfolio
- $6.82
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded194
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026? · No | 0.990 | 0.991 | $6.82 | +$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$98.17at 0.807Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?
- +$57.53at 0.837Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
- +$45.20at 0.897Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?
- +$33.56at 0.924US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
- +$29.96at 0.920US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 22:44 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $1.64 |
| 09-22 10:25 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $13.19 |
| 09-20 00:54 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.989 | $13.04 |
| 09-17 03:13 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.958 | $12.50 |
| 09-14 07:25 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.966 | $12.10 |
| 09-14 07:22 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026? | SELL | 0.997 | $12.12 |
| 09-12 16:56 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.977 | $11.88 |
| 09-07 06:04 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.16 | $11.34 |
| 09-07 06:04 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.16 | $27.24 |
| 09-07 04:04 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.2264011818 | $36.78 |
| 09-06 01:58 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $136.47 |
| 09-05 02:49 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.968 | $77.44 |
| 09-05 02:45 | Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on September 5? | BUY | 0.97 | $16.31 |
| 09-05 01:47 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.964 | $28.97 |
| 09-05 01:47 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.963 | $9.62 |