kvillegas
0x774cdec84d24ce7fc4e5af524fcf26ce0dc02c62
- Realised P&L
- $58.83
- Volume
- $11.4k
- Markets traded
- 84
- Open portfolio
- $82.87
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded84
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 21? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.675 | $37.61 | +$3.62 |
| Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.21% in September? · No | 0.810 | 0.875 | $23.52 | +$1.75 |
| Will the Greenland agreement text be released by September 23, 2026? (copy) (copy) · No | 0.560 | 0.485 | $21.74 | −$3.36 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$45.99at 0.270Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?
- +$34.46at 0.530Will Inter Milan win the Serie A?
- +$32.61at 0.630Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?
- +$14.54at 0.480Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 14?
- +$10.92at 0.642Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-10 08:31 | Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July? | BUY | 0.6299999977 | $19.20 |
| 01-31 13:58 | Will Chainlink hit $15 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.28 |
| 01-30 16:54 | Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,475-$4,600 in January? | BUY | 0.9909999152 | $4.84 |
| 01-30 15:37 | Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.97 |
| 01-30 15:13 | Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $15.40 |
| 01-30 14:17 | Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.998 | $49.15 |
| 12-30 10:17 | Will Trump pardon Young Thug in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.84 |
| 12-30 00:32 | Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? | BUY | 0.9979999365 | $7.86 |
| 12-29 22:52 | Will Trump pardon Young Thug in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $24.02 |
| 12-29 22:35 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $15.32 |
| 12-29 20:05 | Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $23.85 |
| 10-30 21:59 | Will Anthropic have the top AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $18.39 |
| 10-30 19:20 | Will Meta have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $23.80 |
| 09-29 18:15 | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.17 |
| 09-29 16:30 | Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.34 |