0x76fdda47db5c08b6d71382a06266b14dad798539
- Realised P&L
- $-706.63
- Volume
- $19.8k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $18.92
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.070 | $18.92 | −$81.08 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$150.00 |
| Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? · No | 0.714 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Insurrection Act invoked by June 30? · Yes | 0.404 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$150.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$295.02at 0.289Will the US strike Somalia next?
- +$130.75at 0.420Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$104.30at 0.192Will the US strike Iran next?
- +$103.40at 0.707US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?
- +$80.85at 0.470Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-08 23:27 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.3208156236 | $130.92 |
| 03-01 00:54 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.9691681297 | $230.75 |
| 02-28 08:59 | US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $353.40 |
| 02-22 12:48 | US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7067132159 | $250.00 |
| 01-25 17:26 | Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31? | SELL | 0.85 | $180.85 |
| 01-20 12:39 | Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31? | BUY | 0.4699999985 | $100.00 |
| 01-18 23:27 | Insurrection Act invoked by June 30? | BUY | 0.4043395157 | $150.00 |
| 01-18 01:13 | Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.369999998 | $100.00 |
| 01-14 08:51 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.4199999977 | $100.00 |
| 01-14 08:51 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | BUY | 0.2099999984 | $100.00 |
| 01-14 02:01 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | SELL | 0.51 | $960.17 |
| 01-14 00:55 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5199999999 | $379.00 |
| 01-14 00:51 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5199999997 | $450.00 |
| 01-14 00:39 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5199999992 | $150.00 |
| 01-14 00:33 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.3675496674 | $150.00 |