Key-Sportsman
0x76d2a155ccce4ec13529b157c0690e91e2b6153a
- Realised P&L
- $6.0k
- Volume
- $1.38M
- Markets traded
- 70
- Open portfolio
- $44.60
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded70
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample46 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.4kat 0.973Will Trump win the 2020 U.S. presidential election?
- +$428.54at 0.020Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?
- +$419.92at 0.905Will Airbnb begin publicly trading before Jan 1, 2021?
- +$388.52at 0.009Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?
- +$345.71at 0.440Will California pass SB 1047 AI safety bill?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-04 18:19 | Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.052 | $0.93 |
| 05-04 18:19 | Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.05 | $80.98 |
| 05-04 18:19 | Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.045 | $8.91 |
| 05-04 18:19 | Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.044 | $8.71 |
| 05-04 18:19 | Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.043 | $3.79 |
| 05-04 18:18 | Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.042 | $5.10 |
| 05-04 18:18 | Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.041 | $7.42 |
| 05-04 18:18 | Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.04 | $3.31 |
| 05-04 18:18 | Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.039 | $1.75 |
| 05-04 18:18 | Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.0355263237 | $2.37 |
| 05-04 18:17 | Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.034 | $3.40 |
| 05-04 18:17 | Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.033 | $3.93 |
| 04-26 18:10 | Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $164.19 |
| 04-26 18:09 | Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $12.80 |
| 12-31 23:41 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.39 | $156.00 |