0x769cc9fc6de982d9efd3adfc596e2a436ba61b52
0x769cc9fc6de982d9efd3adfc596e2a436ba61b52
- Realised P&L
- $-1.56
- Volume
- $266.47
- Markets traded
- 57
- Open portfolio
- $4.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded57
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration8.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.800 | $1.43 | +$0.43 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.855 | $1.16 | +$0.16 |
| Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.865 | $1.15 | +$0.15 |
| Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $62 Week of October 12 2026? · No | 0.630 | 0.630 | $1.00 | +$0.00 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.004 | $0.01 | −$0.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.51at 0.227Trump renames AI by September 30?
- +$3.46at 0.595Will Moonshot be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)?
- +$2.96at 0.259Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September?
- +$2.84at 0.642Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$2.82at 0.268Will OpenRouter process between 165T and 175T tokens the week of October 5?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 21:21 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $62 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 13:21 | Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 11:50 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 03:49 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 19:48 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399996448 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 23:45 | Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $256 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 03:43 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 19:43 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 11:42 | Will OpenRouter process between 165T and 175T tokens the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 03:42 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 18:34 | Will OpenRouter process between 155T and 165T tokens the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.7299994744 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 10:31 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 02:06 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 17:56 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 03:15 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |