0x76367ae0dfb23810358d9bff80ca0fd0d29c8d1d
- Realised P&L
- $-5.12
- Volume
- $78.51
- Markets traded
- 32
- Open portfolio
- $2.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded32
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample29 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 15, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.995 | $1.24 | +$0.24 |
| Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $100 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.190 | $0.83 | −$0.17 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? · No | 0.720 | 0.006 | $0.01 | −$0.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.33at 0.306Will Andy Burnham say "King" during the next PMQ?
- +$1.54at 0.400Will Trump say "Weightlifting / Weightlifter" during his rally with Darline Graham?
- +$1.42at 0.420Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in August?
- +$1.11at 0.480Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?
- +$1.06at 0.490SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 23:24 | Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 22:58 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $100 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 04:18 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 06:16 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 11? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 09:17 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 22:49 | Will Trump say "Radical Left" during RNC Convention? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 12:28 | Will Trump say "Afford" or "Affordable" or "Affordability" during RNC Convention? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 22:57 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 14:44 | LAPTOP airdrop by September 9? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 16:13 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | BUY | 0.4599997608 | $1.00 |
| 09-03 01:56 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.719999856 | $1.00 |
| 09-02 06:54 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $178 Week of August 31 2026? | BUY | 0.2699998542 | $1.00 |
| 09-01 11:02 | Will Andy Burnham say "King" during the next PMQ? | BUY | 0.2979998528 | $1.00 |
| 09-01 03:00 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 Week of August 31 2026? | BUY | 0.3099998295 | $1.00 |
| 08-30 06:57 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599997608 | $1.00 |