0x75e361c4bb3c748aea4d377749850e1c813ae19e
- Realised P&L
- $1.97
- Volume
- $172.84
- Markets traded
- 35
- Open portfolio
- $25.12
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded35
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample26 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)53.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.855 | $4.84 | +$1.84 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.865 | $3.76 | +$0.76 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? · No | 0.520 | 0.535 | $3.09 | +$0.09 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.665 | $3.07 | +$0.07 |
| Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.285 | $3.05 | +$0.05 |
| Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? · No | 0.710 | 0.695 | $2.94 | −$0.06 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.220 | $2.75 | −$0.25 |
| Will China's CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.600 | $2.34 | −$0.66 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? · No | 0.260 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.59at 0.500Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 in July?
- +$1.97at 0.400Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?
- +$1.78at 0.610Will Trump say "Data Center" during cabinet meeting?
- +$1.38at 0.690Will Trump say "Stock Market" during Michigan remarks?
- +$1.17at 0.720Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 07:45 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999861 | $3.00 |
| 08-05 23:45 | Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? | BUY | 0.7099999503 | $3.00 |
| 08-05 15:44 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July? | BUY | 0.2799999515 | $3.00 |
| 08-05 07:43 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on August 5? | BUY | 0.75 | $3.00 |
| 08-04 19:42 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.649999935 | $3.00 |
| 08-04 11:41 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 4? | BUY | 0.7599999595 | $3.00 |
| 08-04 03:41 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $3.00 |
| 08-03 19:39 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.6899999425 | $3.00 |
| 08-03 11:33 | Will China's CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026? | BUY | 0.7699998614 | $3.00 |
| 08-03 03:32 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999425 | $3.00 |
| 08-02 19:30 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799999637 | $3.00 |
| 08-02 11:28 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.5299999505 | $3.00 |
| 08-02 02:58 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.31 |
| 08-01 18:58 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999808 | $3.00 |
| 08-01 10:58 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.26 | $1.04 |