0x7588DB999FBD356E7040D4b67591155Cc18CFbC9-1768781627452
0x7588db999fbd356e7040d4b67591155cc18cfbc9
- Realised P&L
- $-75.07
- Volume
- $66.6k
- Markets traded
- 36
- Open portfolio
- $70.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded36
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration82.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.083 | 0.055 | $57.75 | −$29.15 |
| Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.002 | $12.00 | −$44.32 |
| Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.001 | $0.25 | −$1.14 |
| Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? · No | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Trump out as President by June 30? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.08 |
| Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.25 |
| US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 15? · No | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$18.00at 0.100Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- +$12.02at 0.093Will Grégory Doucet win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?
- +$8.34at 0.002Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$8.20at 0.005Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$4.09at 0.026Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-12 14:51 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.07 | $1.40 |
| 07-19 13:46 | Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 07-15 00:21 | Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.30 |
| 07-03 23:28 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.07 | $9.10 |
| 06-30 16:18 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.09 | $18.00 |
| 05-25 07:10 | Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.007 | $49.00 |
| 05-16 09:49 | Trump out as President by June 30? | BUY | 0.015 | $1.05 |
| 05-16 09:48 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 05-10 23:56 | US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? | BUY | 0.026999973 | $1.00 |
| 05-09 11:47 | US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 05-09 06:21 | Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.007 | $7.00 |
| 05-09 06:16 | Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.007 | $3.50 |
| 05-09 06:14 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 05-03 23:49 | Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.05 |
| 05-03 23:48 | Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.007 | $2.80 |