pa4ul
0x7574662bac101a9cd9a0a19716ba7443da72d2c7
- Realised P&L
- $-4.53
- Volume
- $244.55
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $44.69
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration49.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Democrats win exactly 0 House seats in Tennessee in the 2026 midterm elections? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.810 | $17.49 | +$0.65 |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.343 | 0.185 | $16.20 | −$13.80 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.715 | $11.00 | +$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.21at 0.680NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
- +$2.27at 0.860Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?
- +$0.99at 0.950Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by October 31?
- +$-10.00at 0.460Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 19:26 | Will Democrats win exactly 0 House seats in Tennessee in the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.7799999852 | $16.84 |
| 10-28 19:26 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.84 | $16.83 |
| 10-28 19:22 | Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by October 31? | BUY | 0.95 | $18.77 |
| 10-28 19:21 | Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority? | SELL | 0.978 | $18.78 |
| 10-22 16:40 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.679999988 | $13.63 |
| 10-22 16:32 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.459999988 | $10.00 |
| 10-22 16:27 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.3425327819 | $30.00 |
| 10-21 16:49 | Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority? | BUY | 0.8599999698 | $16.52 |
| 10-16 15:55 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.6499999935 | $10.00 |