tom712
0x756d1bd18089593255e3192e433d459a528a0158
- Realised P&L
- $68.08
- Volume
- $4.4k
- Markets traded
- 89
- Open portfolio
- $380.69
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded89
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the OH-03 House seat? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.975 | $153.78 | +$3.94 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? · No | 0.950 | 1.000 | $101.95 | +$5.05 |
| Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.935 | $60.77 | +$0.97 |
| Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.945 | $22.68 | +$2.28 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.735 | $20.57 | +$3.50 |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.640 | 0.795 | $12.72 | +$2.48 |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · Yes | 0.890 | 0.685 | $8.22 | −$2.46 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.78at 0.940US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
- +$13.45at 0.942Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$9.92at 0.912Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$7.22at 0.971Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$4.42at 0.740Will “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-27 07:38 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | BUY | 0.95 | $96.90 |
| 09-20 23:17 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.61 | $17.07 |
| 09-13 16:18 | Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $59.80 |
| 09-13 16:08 | Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $20.40 |
| 09-13 15:59 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $10.24 |
| 09-12 18:27 | Will “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series? | BUY | 0.73 | $12.41 |
| 09-03 15:15 | Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.956 | $92.73 |
| 09-03 15:11 | Will Fatima Shaban win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election? | BUY | 0.88 | $10.56 |
| 08-25 09:56 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.969 | $100.71 |
| 08-23 19:47 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9600714354 | $100.80 |
| 08-20 20:55 | Will the Democratic Party win the OH-03 House seat? | BUY | 0.95 | $149.83 |
| 08-20 20:49 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.89 | $10.68 |
| 08-18 22:00 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.73 | $160.60 |
| 08-16 09:57 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.74 | $162.80 |
| 08-03 18:11 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9577897895 | $100.56 |