atillaarruda
0x75639ef421bcf15915f33015e54546a506e85621
- Realised P&L
- $-140.21
- Volume
- $4.0k
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $415.54
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration55.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election? · No | 0.176 | 0.165 | $251.49 | −$17.05 |
| Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? · Yes | 0.532 | 0.575 | $162.05 | +$12.05 |
| Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.010 | $2.00 | −$36.00 |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? · No | 0.526 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$207.48 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$55.94at 0.236Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?
- +$45.54at 0.710Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 21:11 | Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.5299999961 | $30.00 |
| 09-11 09:19 | Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.5327983422 | $120.00 |
| 09-09 16:54 | Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election? | BUY | 0.1401305265 | $48.54 |
| 09-07 16:36 | Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election? | BUY | 0.1799999958 | $30.00 |
| 09-03 12:17 | Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | SELL | 0.331242281 | $215.10 |
| 09-03 12:03 | Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election? | BUY | 0.2060340991 | $80.00 |
| 09-03 12:00 | Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election? | BUY | 0.1766151402 | $110.00 |
| 05-13 01:32 | Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | BUY | 0.510896032 | $29.49 |
| 05-11 16:51 | Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | BUY | 0.4699999925 | $15.00 |
| 05-11 16:51 | Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | BUY | 0.4613270424 | $10.00 |
| 05-06 16:44 | Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.425742527 | $5.00 |
| 05-06 16:44 | Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.4299999871 | $5.00 |
| 05-06 16:44 | Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.4199999832 | $5.00 |
| 05-06 16:43 | Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.4099999836 | $5.00 |
| 05-06 16:42 | Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.4199999832 | $5.00 |