thomasphillips
0x753513b4b008041a73fdb02c04e42f190640f79b
- Realised P&L
- $22.77
- Volume
- $11.8k
- Markets traded
- 80
- Open portfolio
- $71.87
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded80
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration56.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 21? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.934 | $33.69 | +$14.21 |
| Will Jeremiah Smith win the 2026 Heisman Trophy? · No | 0.590 | 0.575 | $23.52 | −$0.61 |
| Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%? · No | 0.650 | 0.690 | $14.66 | +$0.85 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.13at 0.996Will Germany win Eurovision 2025?
- +$5.00at 0.730Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on September 17?
- +$4.48at 0.767Will Lars Markus Hildingsson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Blekinge?
- +$2.52at 0.340Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?
- +$2.04at 0.510Will Real Madrid win La Liga?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 16:08 | Will Lars Markus Hildingsson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Blekinge? | BUY | 0.76 | $14.63 |
| 01-31 13:32 | Will Chainlink dip to $6 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.25 |
| 01-30 15:24 | Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in January? | BUY | 0.995 | $6.61 |
| 01-30 15:20 | Will Ethena hit $0.33 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.70 |
| 01-30 14:50 | Will Ethena hit $0.29 in January? | BUY | 0.995 | $25.39 |
| 01-30 11:58 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $21.71 |
| 12-30 10:14 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.23 |
| 12-29 20:45 | Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.55 |
| 12-29 18:58 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.9989999718 | $23.32 |
| 12-29 18:50 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.9969999703 | $31.91 |
| 10-30 23:43 | Will Anthropic have the top AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.50 |
| 10-30 18:02 | Will Solana reach $240 in October? | BUY | 0.998 | $17.37 |
| 10-30 17:53 | Will Z.ai have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.99 | $18.53 |
| 09-29 10:22 | Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.61 |
| 09-29 00:52 | Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.85 |