0x7513a73a8d6cd7d3c3368676c74179219a51241a
- Realised P&L
- $11.36
- Volume
- $1.2k
- Markets traded
- 27
- Open portfolio
- $118.64
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded27
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)45.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.900 | 0.966 | $20.29 | +$1.39 |
| OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? · No | 0.500 | 0.948 | $19.90 | +$9.40 |
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.936 | $17.78 | +$8.28 |
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.770 | 0.920 | $15.64 | +$2.55 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · No | 0.880 | 0.925 | $11.10 | +$0.54 |
| Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? · No | 0.948 | 0.971 | $9.71 | +$0.23 |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.850 | 0.915 | $9.15 | +$0.65 |
| Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No | 0.870 | 0.905 | $7.24 | +$0.28 |
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? · No | 0.893 | 0.964 | $4.82 | +$0.35 |
| Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.095 | $1.61 | −$2.29 |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.436 | 0.087 | $1.40 | −$5.59 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.41at 0.918Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
- +$8.90at 0.500Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026?
- +$5.29at 0.660Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?
- +$1.98at 0.620Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
- +$1.60at 0.850China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-09 20:26 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.282 | $2.26 |
| 07-04 20:56 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.87 | $4.35 |
| 07-02 20:52 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.948 | $9.48 |
| 06-26 22:02 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $5.40 |
| 06-24 20:36 | Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.87 | $6.96 |
| 06-22 13:27 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.91 | $10.92 |
| 06-20 08:42 | Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? | BUY | 0.061 | $1.22 |
| 06-19 20:00 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $5.40 |
| 06-13 01:18 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.459 | $2.75 |
| 06-06 11:30 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.23 | $3.91 |
| 05-26 01:47 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.934 | $5.60 |
| 05-26 01:32 | Modi out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.936 | $7.49 |
| 05-26 01:31 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.066 | $1.39 |
| 05-26 01:30 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.934 | $4.67 |
| 05-23 23:09 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.88 | $10.56 |