cerg4cg5
0x74fc86c3a979842feff1283c8b1d4c509b7e0785
- Realised P&L
- $-8.45
- Volume
- $91.86
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $2.67
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-9.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration42.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hyperliquid hit $100 by September 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.699 | 0.690 | $2.67 | −$0.03 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.89 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.49 |
| Spurs vs. Hornets · Spurs | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Mavericks vs. Lakers · Mavericks | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.42 |
| Magic vs. Timberwolves · Timberwolves | 0.700 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.83 |
| Will India win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? · No | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.78 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.37at 0.613Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$3.76at 0.210Pelicans vs. Timberwolves
- +$1.88at 0.517Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
- +$1.81at 0.689Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
- +$1.14at 0.690Seahawks vs. Patriots
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-23 11:36 | Will Hyperliquid hit $100 by September 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.7099999374 | $1.70 |
| 08-23 10:14 | Will Hyperliquid hit $100 by September 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 08-07 17:14 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999522 | $1.89 |
| 05-05 09:33 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals | BUY | 0.5099999769 | $1.99 |
| 03-06 12:12 | Magic vs. Timberwolves | BUY | 0.6999999505 | $2.83 |
| 03-05 08:32 | Will India win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? | BUY | 0.5299999123 | $2.78 |
| 02-12 17:45 | Mavericks vs. Lakers | BUY | 0.2799999595 | $4.42 |
| 02-12 17:43 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | BUY | 0.6890285244 | $4.00 |
| 02-06 11:58 | Seahawks vs. Patriots | BUY | 0.6899999564 | $2.53 |
| 02-06 11:54 | Pelicans vs. Timberwolves | BUY | 0.2099998677 | $1.00 |
| 01-31 07:21 | Spurs vs. Hornets | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 12-20 10:03 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.469999996 | $10.49 |
| 11-05 17:45 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.6129999998 | $10.09 |