0x74CD16c7d824C669b1c78FC1062105Fc24bd67fE-1767994688018
0x74cd16c7d824c669b1c78fc1062105fc24bd67fe
- Realised P&L
- $-1.3k
- Volume
- $41.3k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $342.25
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)35.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · Yes | 0.163 | 0.055 | $342.25 | −$674.63 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$100.86at 0.740Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$97.08at 0.236US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$96.25at 0.074Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?
- +$48.82at 0.170Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$4.36at 0.400Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-11 15:14 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.1199999985 | $65.74 |
| 06-11 15:14 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | SELL | 0.0070658962 | $65.74 |
| 06-08 12:52 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.1099999971 | $32.37 |
| 06-08 12:51 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | SELL | 0.010437556 | $32.37 |
| 05-13 19:04 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.03335181 | $24.88 |
| 05-13 19:04 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.1299999957 | $25.00 |
| 05-12 14:46 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.0319893912 | $30.00 |
| 05-11 23:53 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.1399999888 | $10.00 |
| 05-11 23:52 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.0371552371 | $25.00 |
| 05-10 18:24 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.1299999979 | $50.00 |
| 05-10 18:24 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.0390000001 | $25.00 |
| 05-09 18:51 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.119999996 | $25.00 |
| 05-09 14:46 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.119999996 | $25.00 |
| 05-09 14:46 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.0339999987 | $25.00 |
| 05-08 15:14 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.119999999 | $100.00 |