Avivtel
0x7489e437bd44d74aee5209d8d214125ba3794c80
- Realised P&L
- $157.29
- Volume
- $11.6k
- Markets traded
- 133
- Open portfolio
- $18.84
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded133
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration93.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? · Yes | 0.444 | 0.405 | $17.70 | −$1.69 |
| Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.780 | 0.890 | $1.14 | +$0.14 |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance · France | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$70.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET · Down | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · No | 0.396 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$131.68at 0.638Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$72.25at 0.472Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- +$32.69at 0.237Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$24.58at 0.578Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET
- +$24.31at 0.320Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 13:03 | Will Éric Zemmour announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | SELL | 0.18 | $2.98 |
| 09-11 19:20 | Will Montpellier HSC win on 2026-09-11? | BUY | 0.3725490094 | $5.00 |
| 09-07 14:40 | Will Éric Zemmour announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | BUY | 0.1399999426 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 14:39 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.4215686072 | $10.00 |
| 08-29 18:23 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET | BUY | 0.0299999712 | $1.00 |
| 08-29 18:09 | Will Éric Zemmour announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | BUY | 0.4399998064 | $1.00 |
| 08-26 09:19 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.67 | $61.84 |
| 08-23 22:22 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET | SELL | 0.36 | $5.14 |
| 08-23 22:21 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET | BUY | 0.3499999615 | $5.00 |
| 08-23 18:35 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.6499999984 | $60.00 |
| 08-12 11:58 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | SELL | 0.4047618058 | $58.46 |
| 08-09 11:17 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.3461918857 | $50.00 |
| 07-18 22:58 | Will England win on 2026-07-18? | SELL | 0.933 | $205.89 |
| 07-18 22:16 | Will England win on 2026-07-18? | BUY | 0.891999997 | $196.85 |
| 07-14 18:35 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.56 | $70.00 |