jasonfentman
0x74281fa845407a4aca04fed98216964873b51d56
- Realised P&L
- $-1.1k
- Volume
- $24.5k
- Markets traded
- 275
- Open portfolio
- $35.97
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded275
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a player from the Big Ten win the 2026 Heisman Trophy? · No | 0.490 | 0.430 | $13.42 | −$1.87 |
| Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027? · No | 0.440 | 0.345 | $10.97 | −$3.02 |
| Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $323,000 and $327,000 on December 31? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.255 | $7.96 | −$2.03 |
| Will Claudia Pina finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or? · No | 0.310 | 0.160 | $3.20 | −$3.00 |
| Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026? · Yes | 0.238 | 0.151 | $0.42 | −$0.24 |
| LoL: GTZ Esports vs Francesinhas (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season · GTZ Esports | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.88 |
| Will Braga qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League? · No | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.69 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.42at 0.285Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET
- +$4.08at 0.490Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET
- +$3.23at 0.408Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET
- +$3.07at 0.540Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET
- +$2.92at 0.372Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 02:15 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee be between 1,800,000 and 2,000,000? | SELL | 0.255 | $5.10 |
| 10-14 20:32 | Will One Nation win the third-most seats in the next New South Wales state election? | SELL | 0.66 | $20.33 |
| 10-10 21:50 | Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 3 and 6 hours? | SELL | 0.3 | $9.42 |
| 10-08 22:16 | Another GTA VI trailer released by October 31? | SELL | 0.58 | $18.38 |
| 10-08 20:34 | Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará? | SELL | 0.15 | $9.57 |
| 10-08 20:12 | Will Donald Trump visit Kansas before the midterms? | SELL | 0.11 | $4.40 |
| 10-08 19:14 | Will the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks win the 2026 Japan Series? | SELL | 0.46 | $15.32 |
| 10-08 17:12 | Will Donald Trump visit Kansas before the midterms? | SELL | 0.17 | $3.40 |
| 10-08 13:04 | Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record? | SELL | 0.67 | $3.35 |
| 10-08 11:09 | Will Gemini Spark be available on the free plan by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.032 | $2.00 |
| 10-08 10:27 | Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026? | SELL | 0.32 | $6.76 |
| 10-08 05:12 | Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Jun 30? | SELL | 0.48 | $29.88 |
| 10-07 14:49 | Will Toy Story 5 rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026? | SELL | 0.32 | $20.83 |
| 10-07 09:16 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.47 | $5.00 |
| 10-06 13:07 | Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 33M tonnes at end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.19 | $2.12 |