0x74159cb868f8f8579bb2cd282ae93cbc57ebd23f
0x74159cb868f8f8579bb2cd282ae93cbc57ebd23f
- Realised P&L
- $9.70
- Volume
- $362.51
- Markets traded
- 85
- Open portfolio
- $5.54
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded85
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $60 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.730 | 0.899 | $2.46 | +$0.46 |
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $344 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.630 | $2.33 | +$0.33 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.085 | $0.74 | −$1.26 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.33at 0.240Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
- +$5.92at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$4.79at 0.300Will Andy Burnham say "King" during the next PMQ?
- +$3.99at 0.341Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?
- +$3.49at 0.371Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 00:32 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $344 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $2.00 |
| 09-21 03:36 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $60 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.7299997409 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 19:36 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599999034 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 10:44 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.449999972 | $1.61 |
| 09-19 21:56 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 13:22 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.6699999163 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 05:15 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 21:05 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999782 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 07:43 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999848 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 21:59 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099999116 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 13:58 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 05:17 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 06:58 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $2.00 |
| 09-11 20:10 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.7599999848 | $2.00 |
| 09-11 10:54 | Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | BUY | 0.6099999116 | $2.00 |