lixiwo
0x74115cb2f3a1e6635bde716da3f8d4b3bcadf321
- Realised P&L
- $-4.90
- Volume
- $7.6k
- Markets traded
- 92
- Open portfolio
- $14.87
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded92
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration6.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration83.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President by September 30? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $12.39 | −$0.01 |
| Harvard vs. Brown · Harvard | 0.820 | 0.825 | $2.48 | +$0.01 |
| Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the price of Solana be above $90 on December 31? · No | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.20 |
| Texans vs. Ravens · Ravens | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.80 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 9? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.47 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? · No | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.00at 0.970Will Ariana Grande win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars?
- +$1.60at 0.984Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 28 - April 4?
- +$1.00at 0.98010-year Treasury yield below 4% before April?
- +$0.60at 0.994Gavin Newsom out as Governor before April?
- +$0.52at 0.982Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 11–18?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 13:04 | Trump out as President by September 30? | BUY | 0.9989999527 | $12.40 |
| 09-25 13:00 | Harvard vs. Brown | BUY | 0.82 | $2.46 |
| 08-01 06:44 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.998 | $14.80 |
| 06-07 12:53 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8? | BUY | 0.999 | $89.00 |
| 05-28 09:49 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? | BUY | 0.9989999898 | $89.00 |
| 05-22 12:26 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? | BUY | 0.998 | $89.00 |
| 05-22 12:25 | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? | BUY | 0.002 | $2.70 |
| 05-17 08:28 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on May 17? | BUY | 0.9989999901 | $92.00 |
| 05-12 09:09 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $72,000 on May 13? | BUY | 0.999 | $92.00 |
| 05-07 08:08 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 8? | BUY | 0.99899999 | $91.00 |
| 05-03 11:14 | Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $91.00 |
| 04-26 03:07 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $90.99 |
| 04-22 12:19 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 22? | BUY | 0.999 | $90.99 |
| 04-17 11:26 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on April 17? | BUY | 0.999 | $90.99 |
| 04-14 06:37 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $90.99 |