lauren79
0x73d50fd630e523bf81caf41ec5c3faeaacc8ddeb
- Realised P&L
- $-68.45
- Volume
- $11.6k
- Markets traded
- 78
- Open portfolio
- $55.59
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded78
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration73.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $186 in September? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.590 | $41.11 | +$2.09 |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.675 | $14.49 | +$0.54 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$47.42at 0.693Will Ferrari record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?
- +$29.18at 0.750Pavlovich vs. Rozenstruik
- +$0.35at 0.980Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April?
- +$0.15at 0.996Yoon out of custody by July 31?
- +$0.09at 0.997Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 13:39 | Will XRP dip to $1.40 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.14 |
| 01-30 16:10 | Will Ethena hit $0.37 in January? | BUY | 0.998 | $10.83 |
| 01-30 15:31 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.85 |
| 01-30 13:06 | Will Solana dip to $70 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $40.46 |
| 12-30 12:24 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.61 |
| 12-30 10:56 | Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $2.64 |
| 12-30 09:57 | Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.62 |
| 12-30 01:32 | Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.9989998382 | $6.02 |
| 12-30 00:57 | Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $36.89 |
| 12-29 19:19 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | BUY | 0.9969999416 | $16.62 |
| 10-30 22:21 | Will Anthropic have the top AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $25.71 |
| 10-30 20:23 | Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be less than 1.0%? | BUY | 0.999 | $22.14 |
| 09-29 10:52 | Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $12.17 |
| 09-29 03:12 | Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.32 |
| 09-29 02:35 | Will OpenAI have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.995 | $14.52 |