Stannis1974
0x733cc1da5cc30eeebc3c90758f6ef710daf25a38
- Realised P&L
- $619.29
- Volume
- $50.6k
- Markets traded
- 93
- Open portfolio
- $610.85
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded93
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration79.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel election: will Likud lose seats? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.935 | $487.49 | −$2.51 |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.311 | 0.085 | $80.35 | −$213.95 |
| Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yes | 0.204 | 0.213 | $41.86 | +$1.86 |
| Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.004 | $1.15 | −$8.85 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
| Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision? · No | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$132.97 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$494.21at 0.083Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the February decision?
- +$168.27at 0.622Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET
- +$141.51at 0.654Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET
- +$131.77at 0.170Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$122.77at 0.622Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-28 12:33 | Israel election: will Likud lose seats? | BUY | 0.9398082023 | $490.00 |
| 08-28 12:33 | Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.0304769826 | $10.00 |
| 08-28 12:32 | Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.2040068767 | $40.00 |
| 07-13 07:43 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.031 | $4.84 |
| 07-13 07:43 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.388 | $36.26 |
| 06-19 15:18 | Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? | SELL | 0.89 | $148.51 |
| 05-27 12:58 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? | SELL | 0.89 | $59.33 |
| 05-24 17:40 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | SELL | 0.985 | $61.56 |
| 05-21 05:44 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.3 | $15.00 |
| 05-15 11:22 | Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision? | BUY | 0.28 | $14.00 |
| 05-13 06:22 | Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.43 | $12.83 |
| 05-10 17:43 | Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY | 0.5799999861 | $10.00 |
| 05-10 17:35 | Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision? | BUY | 0.23 | $8.28 |
| 05-10 17:34 | Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision? | BUY | 0.22 | $5.65 |
| 05-10 17:34 | Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision? | BUY | 0.21 | $10.03 |