hhdv
0x7312de48371d18a1f580b90e279e476d7aff9356
- Realised P&L
- $-196.65
- Volume
- $34.1k
- Markets traded
- 36
- Open portfolio
- $81.43
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded36
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)67.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by March 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.271 | 0.235 | $49.45 | −$7.55 |
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.075 | $28.64 | −$139.36 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · Yes | 0.042 | 0.011 | $3.34 | −$8.86 |
| U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Friday? · No | 0.741 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$110.85 |
| Will Sentient launch a token in 2025? · Yes | 0.825 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$156.52 |
| Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 15? · No | 0.969 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.32 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$519.42at 0.591Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?
- +$418.20at 0.360Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?
- +$246.05at 0.606Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
- +$40.81at 0.799U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
- +$39.77at 0.870Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 20:14 | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.2708624315 | $57.00 |
| 10-12 20:13 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.957 | $57.42 |
| 09-14 19:51 | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4399999998 | $168.00 |
| 09-14 19:49 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.77 | $167.94 |
| 09-04 21:47 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $19.08 |
| 08-27 10:28 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.73 | $86.21 |
| 02-05 19:26 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BUY | 0.042 | $12.20 |
| 01-20 16:55 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.75 | $140.23 |
| 01-08 22:43 | Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.79 | $52.01 |
| 01-08 22:31 | Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.44 | $71.40 |
| 01-07 11:29 | U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Friday? | BUY | 0.75 | $54.26 |
| 01-07 11:29 | U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Friday? | BUY | 0.7380189814 | $55.21 |
| 01-07 00:11 | European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? | BUY | 0.83 | $104.55 |
| 01-07 00:07 | U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? | BUY | 0.81 | $13.04 |
| 01-07 00:07 | U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? | BUY | 0.81 | $76.11 |