Alisa-
0x730d1abf0fa608f06f52b7c99860e83d36a15aec
- Realised P&L
- $-12.31
- Volume
- $307.42
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $100.31
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration67.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration91.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31? · Yes | 0.716 | 0.725 | $92.08 | +$1.13 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.314 | 0.335 | $8.24 | +$0.51 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.61at 0.620US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
- +$0.74at 0.850US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?
- +$0.28at 0.870US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
- +$0.27at 0.973US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?
- +$-0.48at 0.155Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 20:45 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.34 | $4.08 |
| 10-01 22:04 | Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $35.25 |
| 10-01 12:37 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.14 | $3.36 |
| 10-01 12:36 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $3.60 |
| 10-01 10:12 | Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31? | BUY | 0.7 | $21.00 |
| 09-12 10:44 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.2899999976 | $3.65 |
| 08-30 20:26 | Will Iran target an Arab country by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.19 | $3.66 |
| 08-25 21:20 | Will Iran target an Arab country by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8199999918 | $8.00 |
| 08-25 20:58 | Will Iran target an Arab country by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8199999916 | $7.80 |
| 08-25 20:57 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? | SELL | 0.94 | $7.74 |
| 08-22 01:11 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.8499999939 | $7.00 |
| 08-22 00:57 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.979 | $7.10 |
| 07-23 04:21 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6199999917 | $4.50 |
| 07-23 04:20 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $4.27 |
| 07-19 20:34 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $4.00 |