0x73030ba7bdb05401f5987f2fb48c226109b8a395
- Realised P&L
- $84.16
- Volume
- $3.2k
- Markets traded
- 110
- Open portfolio
- $13.73
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded110
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "The Fall-Off - J-Cole" be the top album for 2026? · No | 0.941 | 0.994 | $9.51 | +$0.51 |
| Will "The Romantic - Bruno Mars" be the top album for 2026? · No | 0.920 | 0.979 | $2.13 | +$0.13 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.840 | 0.954 | $1.14 | +$0.14 |
| Will Frank Ocean have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? · No | 0.912 | 0.877 | $0.96 | −$0.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$83.73at 0.594Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$83.67at 0.859Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June?
- +$7.18at 0.175Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia?
- +$6.70at 0.185Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa?
- +$6.34at 0.327Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-18 04:37 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.405 | $81.00 |
| 07-18 04:37 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.592 | $118.40 |
| 07-14 10:38 | Will "The Romantic - Bruno Mars" be the top album for 2026? | BUY | 0.9199999816 | $2.00 |
| 07-14 10:38 | Will "The Fall-Off - J-Cole" be the top album for 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999976 | $8.00 |
| 07-13 13:55 | Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of July 25? | BUY | 0.98 | $0.28 |
| 07-13 13:55 | Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of July 25? | BUY | 0.98 | $10.00 |
| 07-12 19:24 | Will France win on 2026-07-14? | BUY | 0.4199999487 | $2.95 |
| 07-12 19:18 | Will "The Fall-Off - J-Cole" be the top album for 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $1.00 |
| 07-12 19:15 | Will "I'm The Problem - Morgan Wallen" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of July 25? | BUY | 0.9945246146 | $10.00 |
| 07-12 18:49 | Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of July 25? | BUY | 0.9705882096 | $60.00 |
| 07-12 18:48 | Will "Dai Dai" be played during the World Cup Finals Halftime Show? | BUY | 0.9900693069 | $5.00 |
| 07-12 18:45 | Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 US song this week? | BUY | 0.9900792079 | $10.00 |
| 07-12 18:45 | Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 US song this week? | BUY | 0.9900891089 | $10.00 |
| 07-12 18:44 | Will "the cure - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 US song this week? | BUY | 0.9900891089 | $10.00 |
| 07-12 15:03 | Will "The Cure - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of July 25? | BUY | 0.9889999999 | $86.00 |