0x72c3b18edE14d9f4588b09D746C8fC1413391719-1760216705834
0x72c3b18ede14d9f4588b09d746c8fc1413391719
- Realised P&L
- $135.55
- Volume
- $11.3k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $2.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration73.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)87.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration90.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.949 | 0.958 | $2.3k | +$21.28 |
| Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? · Yes | 0.839 | 0.875 | $231.73 | +$9.59 |
| Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? · No | 0.887 | 0.882 | $16.41 | −$0.09 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$187.20at 0.883Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- +$23.75at 0.600Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET
- +$7.83at 0.970Will Japanese PM apologize for China comments in 2025?
- +$5.50at 0.900Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 2?
- +$5.46at 0.950Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-06 16:28 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? | BUY | 0.9159999058 | $7.00 |
| 08-03 20:01 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? | BUY | 0.8769998992 | $4.34 |
| 07-13 23:20 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.9499998831 | $6.50 |
| 07-13 23:19 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.9487429361 | $2.3k |
| 07-13 23:15 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.961 | $2.3k |
| 07-13 22:49 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? | BUY | 0.859 | $5.15 |
| 06-16 13:32 | Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? | BUY | 0.8299999917 | $7.00 |
| 05-16 16:11 | Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? | BUY | 0.84 | $207.62 |
| 05-16 16:08 | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | SELL | 0.91 | $204.49 |
| 04-24 03:57 | Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? | BUY | 0.8466978197 | $1.00 |
| 04-18 21:11 | Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? | BUY | 0.8099999776 | $6.52 |
| 03-16 17:35 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.8914249954 | $79.22 |
| 03-16 17:35 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL | 0.911 | $78.35 |
| 03-12 12:58 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.903999997 | $2.45 |
| 03-01 09:34 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.8799999997 | $1.4k |