ff6961
0x7289b2ec093a7cf5c3890f65dea02a353ef54bff
- Realised P&L
- $-1.3k
- Volume
- $101.7k
- Markets traded
- 105
- Open portfolio
- $47.37
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded105
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration92.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.075 | $43.58 | −$66.81 |
| Kylie Jenner confirmed pregnant in 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.830 | $3.32 | +$0.16 |
| Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.487 | 0.063 | $0.47 | −$3.18 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$354.05at 0.539Will Seattle have between 6 and 7 inches of precipitation in March?
- +$302.45at 0.157Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%?
- +$229.45at 0.150Will Trump say "UFC" or "World Cup" this week? (March 15)
- +$172.02at 0.220Will Kanye release BULLY by March 20?
- +$135.45at 0.190Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-13 03:54 | Will Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? | SELL | 0.798 | $667.13 |
| 04-10 20:46 | Will Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? | BUY | 0.859 | $718.12 |
| 04-09 10:31 | SHEIN IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.8 | $92.80 |
| 03-31 02:43 | Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-04-17? | SELL | 0.61 | $392.23 |
| 03-31 02:42 | Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-04-17? | SELL | 0.61 | $36.60 |
| 03-30 15:08 | Cambria FDV above $30M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.77 | $88.55 |
| 03-30 02:32 | Cambria FDV above $30M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.78 | $89.70 |
| 03-29 18:33 | Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-04-17? | BUY | 0.67 | $471.01 |
| 03-26 03:18 | Kylie Jenner confirmed pregnant in 2026? | SELL | 0.68 | $607.92 |
| 03-25 17:08 | Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 27? | SELL | 0.47 | $48.41 |
| 03-25 17:07 | Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 27? | SELL | 0.47 | $70.97 |
| 03-25 17:06 | Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 27? | SELL | 0.47 | $84.13 |
| 03-25 03:19 | Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 27? | BUY | 0.33 | $149.49 |
| 03-23 20:18 | SHEIN IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.67 | $77.72 |
| 03-23 03:10 | Kylie Jenner confirmed pregnant in 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $709.42 |