PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x721fb66635963d636adef779c43e637ae63ccef1

Realised P&L
$22.85
Volume
$1.3k
Markets traded
53
Open portfolio
$191.22

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded53
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration48.6% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample35 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)37.1%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration5.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? · No0.7370.799$10.85+$0.85
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? · No0.8400.865$10.30+$0.30
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? · No0.9960.996$10.00$0.01
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? · Yes0.9770.977$9.99$0.01
Western Kentucky vs. Indiana · Indiana0.9980.997$9.99$0.01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No0.9950.992$9.96$0.04
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? · No0.9800.977$9.96$0.04
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? · No0.9100.895$9.84$0.16
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? · Yes0.9270.908$9.80$0.20
Will Islam Makhachev be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026? · Yes0.9390.918$9.78$0.22
Will Trump pardon Andrew Tate before 2027? · No0.9830.962$9.78$0.22
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? · No0.8200.800$9.76$0.24
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 · Mayweather0.5100.495$9.71$0.29
Base FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes0.6000.580$9.67$0.33
Will Kanye West and Bianca Censori separate in 2026? · No0.8950.860$9.61$0.39

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-16 00:57Will Islam Makhachev be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?BUY0.938999935$10.00
09-16 00:57Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?SELL0.956$10.00
09-16 00:11Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?BUY0.996$10.00
09-16 00:11Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 15?SELL0.999$10.00
09-15 12:43Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?BUY0.9769999555$10.00
09-15 12:43Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?SELL0.996$10.04
09-15 07:28Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?BUY0.9799999647$10.00
09-15 07:28Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?SELL0.998$10.01
09-14 23:40Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?BUY0.9919999175$10.00
09-14 23:39Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?SELL0.992$9.98
09-14 17:21Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?BUY0.9559999128$10.00
09-14 17:21Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?SELL0.994$10.00
09-14 15:27Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?BUY0.9939999998$10.00
09-14 15:27Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?SELL0.975$10.04
09-14 13:42Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.998$10.00