0x7219dc6a6edc2d05555fb340dd29c01b9f906260
0x7219dc6a6edc2d05555fb340dd29c01b9f906260
- Realised P&L
- $4.36
- Volume
- $45.41
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $11.26
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar9.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration47.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration14.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? · No | 0.600 | 0.982 | $1.64 | +$0.64 |
| Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on October 12? · Up | 0.680 | 0.974 | $1.43 | +$0.43 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.440 | 0.515 | $1.17 | +$0.17 |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 Week of October 12 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.900 | $1.14 | +$0.14 |
| Will Citigroup (C) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $2.8B? · No | 0.720 | 0.775 | $1.08 | +$0.08 |
| Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $16.6B? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.665 | $0.92 | −$0.08 |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of October 12 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.200 | $0.91 | −$0.09 |
| Gemini Argon released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.520 | 0.450 | $0.87 | −$0.13 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026? · No | 0.360 | 0.300 | $0.83 | −$0.17 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · No | 0.370 | 0.305 | $0.82 | −$0.18 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.145 | $0.45 | −$0.55 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.51at 0.227Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $76 Week of October 5 2026?
- +$1.48at 0.410Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $74 Week of October 5 2026?
- +$1.48at 0.410Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $252 Week of October 5 2026?
- +$0.55at 0.649Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 Week of October 5 2026?
- +$0.42at 0.708Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 12:02 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 12:02 | Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on October 12? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 04:02 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 20:01 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 11:42 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 03:05 | Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $16.6B? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 18:48 | Will Citigroup (C) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $2.8B? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 04:47 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 04:44 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 20:25 | Gemini Argon released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 10:58 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 02:57 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $74 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 18:01 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 09:54 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 7? | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 01:53 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $76 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |