0x720Aaf4b99854c5D5a0e618eE733D395cbAdaa3f-1783197974481
0x720aaf4b99854c5d5a0e618ee733d395cbadaa3f
- Realised P&L
- $579.08
- Volume
- $8.5k
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $240.77
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration63.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration81.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.440 | $195.64 | −$4.62 |
| Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.085 | $42.50 | −$22.50 |
| Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.400 | 0.560 | $2.63 | +$0.75 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$374.81at 0.674Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
- +$116.42at 0.765Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
- +$103.85at 0.330Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?
- +$-16.00at 0.047Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 17:47 | Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.46 | $145.08 |
| 09-25 21:52 | Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.88 |
| 08-14 20:46 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | BUY | 0.7 | $381.50 |
| 08-14 20:45 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? | BUY | 0.33 | $49.50 |
| 07-22 20:01 | Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by July 31? | SELL | 0.031 | $31.00 |
| 07-18 16:53 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? | BUY | 0.8019801641 | $15.00 |
| 07-18 16:50 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? | BUY | 0.8 | $240.00 |
| 07-17 02:48 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $323.00 |
| 07-17 02:45 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $469.50 |