polkaly
0x71e3ce8bd0fed0fc00c59a53e72b68429efb4333
- Realised P&L
- $41.61
- Volume
- $5.2k
- Markets traded
- 127
- Open portfolio
- $995.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded127
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration8.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.50at 0.150Will Rosalind Eleazar be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?
- +$5.25at 0.568Will Robert Pattinson be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?
- +$3.20at 0.380Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?
- +$3.04at 0.650Will Olivia Wilde be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?
- +$3.00at 0.750Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Visual Effects at the 99th Academy Awards?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 22:12 | Will "The Black Ball" be nominated for Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.28 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 13:51 | Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: Arsenal FC O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.59 | $2.95 |
| 11-01 09:06 | Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.18 | $9.00 |
| 10-31 20:52 | Will the Democratic Party control the Pennsylvania Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.55 | $2.97 |
| 10-31 10:13 | Blue mega-tsunami in 2026? | SELL | 0.72 | $5.82 |
| 10-31 06:05 | Will Luke Combs have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | SELL | 0.81 | $4.68 |
| 10-31 06:04 | Will Post Malone have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | SELL | 0.82 | $25.72 |
| 10-30 22:46 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Lieutenant Governor election? | SELL | 0.69 | $13.80 |
| 10-30 22:40 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Lieutenant Governor election? | SELL | 0.69 | $13.80 |
| 10-30 18:37 | Will Florida's "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" referendum pass in November 2026? | SELL | 0.34 | $4.08 |
| 10-30 17:38 | Will Riz Ahmed be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.82 | $41.00 |
| 10-30 14:07 | Benedict Wong as Wong? | SELL | 0.67 | $3.35 |
| 10-30 13:08 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards? | SELL | 0.14 | $0.28 |
| 10-30 13:00 | Will "I Play Rocky" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.42 | $2.94 |
| 10-30 12:55 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Lieutenant Governor election? | SELL | 0.3 | $0.27 |