0x71cb54580ece05599843cb998e636120b41a2266
- Realised P&L
- $79.15
- Volume
- $3.3k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $147.40
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina dollarize by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.949 | 0.947 | $41.89 | −$0.09 |
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? · No | 0.936 | 0.962 | $35.78 | +$0.98 |
| Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1600.00 or higher at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.627 | 0.600 | $35.10 | −$1.60 |
| UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? · No | 0.944 | 0.940 | $34.62 | −$0.18 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$40.61at 0.123Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$13.14at 0.434Will Argentina's monthly inflation in June 2026 be between 1.8% and 2.0%?
- +$9.96at 0.019Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?
- +$9.41at 0.580Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?
- +$5.70at 0.790Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-29 23:41 | Will Argentina dollarize by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9509999179 | $9.56 |
| 08-29 23:41 | Will Argentina dollarize by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9483430045 | $32.42 |
| 07-02 02:59 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.029 | $2.42 |
| 06-29 21:12 | Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? | BUY | 0.2899999275 | $2.00 |
| 06-29 20:49 | Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.024 | $3.43 |
| 06-29 20:49 | Will Argentina's monthly inflation in June 2026 be between 1.8% and 2.0%? | SELL | 0.73 | $33.97 |
| 06-29 20:49 | Will Argentina's monthly inflation in June 2026 be less than or equal to 1.7%? | SELL | 0.13 | $6.61 |
| 06-27 12:32 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.877999995 | $2.79 |
| 06-27 12:28 | Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0139999932 | $2.00 |
| 06-27 12:27 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0239999881 | $2.00 |
| 06-27 12:27 | Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0149999925 | $2.00 |
| 06-27 12:23 | Will Argentina's monthly inflation in June 2026 be less than or equal to 1.7%? | BUY | 0.185840708 | $9.45 |
| 06-27 12:23 | Will Argentina's monthly inflation in June 2026 be between 1.8% and 2.0%? | BUY | 0.419999988 | $19.55 |
| 06-27 12:12 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.9357641457 | $34.80 |
| 06-27 12:12 | UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? | BUY | 0.9442619504 | $34.80 |